UPL, very good buying opportunity

UPL nse daily chart

UPL nse monthaly chart 

     I attached daily and monthly chart of United Phosphorus Ltd ( UPL ) here. this company was established in 1969 and now one of the top companies in the world in its segment. It is among largest exporter of agrochemical from India and exported its product to more than 100 countries.

     Technically this stock is in uptrend since 2013 onward and still long way to go. Uptrend has just started. 

     There is lot of analysis to write but I will not write anything. Just saying that, this is very good buy at any price, in any uptrend or down trend. No need to see nifty movement or any war or other international happening. Just buy it.

     Short term tgt is around 1000 rupees and long term ( 18 month ) tgt is around 3000 rupees. CMP is Rs 770 around. It broke resistance of 747 today and fly up to cmp 770. This is not end but a start of new spike or upward blast.
     Thank you, Jay Shriram.

Butterfly is flying in Rs 130 range.

Butterfly Ghimathi , NSE code - BUTT, weekly chart 

     Attached is weekly chart of Butterfly Ghimathi Appliances, NSE code -- BUTT. 

    I used bollinger band and channel to read this weekly chart. Draw some red lines to count duration of its up & down flying between channel resistance line to support line. Used star marking to show next support destination mark. 

     You can easily see that share price is moving in a very slightly upward moving channel. From Jan 2015 till today ( 100 Weeks ) price broke the channel only at 3 occasions & that is also in the form of intra day spike. It touched resistance line of the channel on 3 occasions & move towards support line & touched support line. Now it is probably 4th occasion when price is going to touch support line of the channel. 

     Coincident is that, bollinger band support line is very near to channel support line. I draw a stark mark there. This mark comes at price of Rs 145. Friday closing price on NSE is Rs 173.

     Price is below the middle line of bollinger band, which indicates bearishness. So we can guess that,' the price can go toward star mark of rs 145 around, where it will get support from channel support line and support line of bollinger band.

     As per the saying," HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF ", price should take support near star marking & return back towards resistance line of the channel.

     Next resistance will be 208, where in the past price returns downward on 3 occasions. But again point to be noted is that," at that time price was moving from resistance line towards support line in its downward journey."

     After crossing this resistance price can easily touch resistance line of the channel. So the tgt is Rs 280 to 300 mark. Time frame for this trade will be somewhere between 15 to 20 weeks. This is the average of past durations. If it sustain and close above the channel support line on weekly basis, then Dow theory comes in to picture and price can get new breakout from there again. But at this moment think about 280 only.

     I have no fundamental data of this company but what I read and heard is good. Search it & think to trade accordingly.
     You can read this article on investing.com also, link is ... https://in.investing.com/analysis/butterfly-share-price-is-flying-in-rs-130-range.-200179332?

Final update, 2nd April 2017

     Attached is Butterfly weekly chart. see it carefully and read below the chart.

     As showed in the weekly chart, price is now in the last wave D of descending triangle chart pattern. which is very bearish chart pattern. after breakout of horizontal line at 140, price can tumble down heavily. So I request my blog readers to book full profits at cmp 192 and exit this trade. Thank you, Jay Shriram.

Bharat Bijlee Limited (BBL) in a upward move

Bharat Bijlee Limited (BBL) daily chart.

     BBL cmp is 860. As shown in this daily chat of Bharat Bijlee Limited, share price of bbl is slowly but steadily moving up in a upward moving channel since year 2014. From year 2010 to 2014 it was in consolidation phase. After Modi govt forming it gave upward breakout.

     Now, just before 5 days, price touched channel support line at 813 mark. Around this price mark, there are 3 supports. (1) First is from channel support line. (2) Second is from bollinger band support line. (3) Third is from prior low support.

     As expected bbl share price took support from these support marks & move upward. Today it cross middle of the bollinger band, which is moving avg line shown in red color. This indicates that share price enter in to bullish phase. This is a rule of using bollinger band. 

     Next resistance is placed at 890, which is prior high. It is very natural resistance. It is shown as R1. Share price can take some resistance there. But looking at the structure of the chart and price maintains itself above middle line of bollinger band, it can cross mentioned R1 in 1 or 2 attempts. 

     Then only resistance is channel resistance line. As it is upward moving channel, resistance is moving upward and upward with the each day is passing. So the tgt is moving up and up only.

After Modi won in UP election with Goa & Manipur, there is good bullishness in Indian markets. With the help of this bullishness BBL can cross Rs 1000 mark within next 3 to 4 months.

     Fundamentals of this company are also good. It is benefited from Uday Scheme largely. Its main business segments are Transformers, Projects, Electric Motors, Elevator Systems and Drives & Automation. BBL also undertakes commissioning of projects under which it designs, commissions high tension electrical switch yards and distribution. 

     BBL has clients such as Gujarat Ambuja Cement, Grasim ind, India Rayon Ind, J.P. Rewa Ind, DLF Cements, ICL Sugars, J.K.Sugar, Dwarikesh Sugar Ind, Mahindra & Mahindra, Airport Authority of India. BBL gets repeat orders from these big clients regularly. 

     BBL changed its strategy and as a result focus on production in spite of risky projects. Result is that, it achieved the highest production of transformers in 2005-16 in its history.

     Conclusion is that,' worst is over for BBL & one can think to buy shares for the tgt above Rs 1000 mark in 3 to 5 months time frame.

Update 1, 5th April 2017,

All targets achieved in Bharat Bijlee Limited. CMP is 1004. Book full profits and exit the trade. Call was given on 17th Mar 2017, when the price was 860 around. We have nearly 150 points profit in hand. Jay Shriram.

Kakatiya cement, in a slightly upward channel.

Kakatiya Cement & Sugar ind,daily chart 

I attached here a daily chart of Kakatiya Cement. You can see that from 15th Nov 2016 to yesterday 10 th March 2017, Kakatiya is moving in a upward moving channel. It touched supportline of channel first time on 22nd Nov 2016, then it went up towards resistance line of channel and touched it first time on 11th Jan 2017, it takes nearly 50 days to complete its upward journey. Price consolidate near the upper band of channel for nearly 18 days and only after that it started it’s down ward journey. Now after 22 days of its downtrend, it close on negative note yesterday marking Rs 325 as a closing price. Price is going towards channel support of 300 to 305. and only after that we can expect next uptrend towards Rs 400.

As the channel is upmoving, more days it takes to touch the upper line of channel ( resistance line ) the more upper target we will get. But it is sure that tgt will be above 400 rupees because as the time is passing channel resistance line is moving upward & upward. It is also exciting to see that, prior low of 303 and support line, both are prevailing on the same price line. so that will act as solid support.

I insert bollinger band and with the help of this indicator, we can see micro range of price movement. Yesterday price move below moving avg line (red ), so we can say that this share closed on a negative note. 

So conclusion is that, Kakatiya Cement will touch 300 to 305 mark & only after that it will cross Rs 400 mark.

You can read this article on investing. com also, link is https://in.investing.com/analysis/kakatiya-cement,-in-a-slightly-upward-channel.-200178565

Update 2, 26th March 2017, 05.20 pm

Kakatiya cement & sugar ind, daily chart

     As predicted in original post, Kakatiya share price made low of Rs 303 on nse. This happening is very much important to prove that, ' the channel is working in a good way.' Price took 8 trading days to touch channel support line and prior low price mark ( red horizontal line ). 

     Now the question arises, "where will price go hereon ?" To predict it, we should have to understand the channel technique. What are the channel's & how they works ? In very simple words answer is that, " channels are nothing but simple higher highs and higher lows or in contra lower highs and lower lows." It is very simple but very powerful Dow theory & nothing else. Supports are prior lows &channel's southward  line. On the other hand resistance is prior high & channel's northward line.

     In this case, after posting original post, share price touched channel support line and prior low price marking on Friday at NSE. One important thing is that support line of bollinger band is also placed at same support price marking. So there are solid support from these 3 different sources. These are the reasons for strongly believing that," price can not go downward from hereon."

     Price of Kakatiya should go upward or consolidate for little time at this level. On the upside there is resistance of prior high placed at Rs 357 mark. Price can make little struggle there but finally it will cross the resistance line. Why I think like this ? It is just because," while taking trend reversal from channel support line and bollinger band support line, upward movement is full of energy with increase in volume.

     Confirmation of trend reversal is above the Rs 330 mark where the middle line ( moving avg ) of bollinger band is placed. But I can confidently give advise that," one should buy at CMP because of solid support from 3 different sources are placed here.

     Price can hit 425 ruppes mark, where channel resistance line is placed. If it cross & sustained above the resistance line of channel, then that will be huge break out for this share. But I am suggesting you to trade for Rs 425 as tgt. After hitting the same, use trailing stop loss method and wait for break out. If break out will not happen, your stop loss will be hit and profit will be booked.

     If you like this article, share it on facebook and other social media. To get regular updates , please subscribe to email, follow me on twitter and google+. 

     Thank you, Jay Shriram.

Update 3 , 30 March

As predicted in prior post, Kakatiya Share price touched channel support line, bollinger band support line and prior low marking support. Look at the attached chart and read the analysis of current situation.

Kakatiya share price made an inverted hammer candlestick pattern. I showed it in text. In the month of December 2016, it made same inverted hammer indicating trend reversal from bearish to bullish. After that price turn upward and touched high of 360 from the low of 230 around.

Same thing is happened here. Lets look at this example to understand inverted hammer.

Kakatiya share price behave in the same way and created this chart pattern. Now next resistance is middle line (red) of the bollinger band. This red middle line is actually moving average. It works as resistance point for the upward moving price and support point to downward moving price. After crossing it price can easily move towards resistance line ( upper line ) of bollinger band. Currently this line is placed at 342 mark. One should note that bollinger band is moving indicator and not steady like channel. After crossing channel resistance line placed at 342, Kakatiya share price can easily go upward to 400 + mark, where channel resistance line is placed. As channel is upward moving, every day passed push the targeted price up and up only.

Many traders and investors always talk about nifty down or up trend and its impact on Kakatiya share price. So here is comparison between nifty index movement and Kakatiya share price movement. 

nifty vs Kakatiya 

You can see that, there is no coordination between nifty movement and Kakatiya share price. 

Update 4, 3rd April 2017

Kakatiya Cement daily chart

     As seen in the daily chart, Kaka closed above middle line of bollinger band, which is sign of entering in bullish territory again. Now next resistance is Rs 357 around, which is prior high. Bollinger band upper line ( resistanceline ) is resistance also, but as it is moving indicator, it can turn upward.

     Point to be noted here is increase in volume, you can see it at the south end of chart. Price went upward with double volume, this indicates good force in upward movement.

     conclusion -- everything is going as predicted in original chart. 400+ is on the way, just matter of time because it is daily chart. thank you, Jay Shriram.

final update, 24th April 2017, 12.10 p.m

nse daily chart, kakatiya cement

     As seen in the chart, Kakatiya share price successfuly break the resistance of bollinger band resistance line as well as resistance of prior high ( 357 ). It sustained above it. Now it can move towards upper line of channel,, which is placed above 425. as it is daily chart, prediction can take take its time in days. Use trailing sl method to protect your profits.

     I am closing this post now, thank you, Jay Shriram.

25 th April

     Booked full profit at 412.50 and made exit. Rs 105/ share profit. Thanks to god for this reward.